The global consumer technology and durable goods (T&D) market is projected to remain broadly flat in 2026, after a 3% expansion in 2025, according to a new market outlook published by NielsenIQ and the Consumer Technology Association.

The 2026 T&D market estimate forecasts global sales of approximately $1.3 trillion in 2025, with year-over-year sales value in 2026 projected at -0.4%. The report highlights a shift in demand geography, with Eastern Europe, Western Europe and the Middle East and Africa expected to drive growth, while Asia-Pacific, particularly China, is forecast to decline.

Regional outlook

Eastern Europe is expected to lead regional growth in 2026, with sales projected to rise 5% year over year. Western Europe and MEA are each forecast to grow 3%, with Latin America up 2%. North America is expected to hold steady, according to the report.

Asia-Pacific is projected to decline by 3%, driven by an estimated 5% fall in China. NIQ attributes the contraction in China to elevated baseline sales resulting from recent government trade-in subsidy programs, which are expected to taper in 2026.

Sector trends

Small domestic appliances are expected to grow, while the IT and office equipment segment posts modest gains. Major domestic appliances are forecast to remain stable, with telecom and consumer electronics experiencing slight declines.

The report identifies AI-native PCs, Mini LED and OLED televisions, built-in household appliances and open-ear headsets as product categories likely to benefit from consumer spending. Replacement cycles for personal computers and smartphones, along with premiumization trends, are expected to support demand. Television sales may receive a temporary boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Value-for-money priority

"Consumers remain value-driven but are prepared to spend where they see compelling product features," said Steve Koenig, vice president of research at CTA. "Built-in artificial intelligence continues to present strong opportunity as a product differentiator, but adoption will depend on clear use cases that illustrate direct benefits and ROI."

Julian Baldwin, president of Tech & Durables at NIQ, said the overall slowdown masks important regional differences. "In 2025, global consumer tech and durable goods purchases grew by a solid 3%," he said. "Growth is expected to slow in 2026, but most regions should remain stable or see modest gains. The exception is China, where elevated baselines from recent trade-in policies will weigh on performance."

Trade and policy factors

The outlook notes that trade policy remains a key variable. It flags evolving U.S. tariffs, ongoing Chinese trade-in measures, and the expansion of Chinese consumer brands into new international markets as developments to monitor. Affordability and accessibility are cited as principal factors determining how quickly artificial intelligence features gain broader consumer adoption.

Analysis and medium-term outlook

The NIQ/CTA estimate assumes China will continue to provide some level of financial support for its domestic consumer market in 2026, though less extensive than in 2025. The report cautions that actual results may differ if tariffs or supply-chain disruptions escalate, or if consumer confidence weakens more than projected.

Over the next several years, artificial intelligence is expected to become an increasingly common feature in consumer devices. According to the report, the market will reward products that successfully translate AI capabilities into visible, practical benefits rather than novelty. Growing competition from Chinese manufacturers, particularly in Europe, MEA and Latin America, could reshape price dynamics and market share.

NIQ and CTA are scheduled to present additional findings at CES 2026, which takes place January 6-9 in Las Vegas.