Consumer Tech Growth to Reset in 2026 as Demand Shifts to Europe and MEA

NIQ and the Consumer Technology Association project global tech and durables sales holding near $1.3 trillion, as Eastern Europe, Western Europe and the Middle East and Africa offset a China-led decline in Asia-Pacific

News Summary

Global sales of consumer technology and durable goods are expected to level off in 2026 after a 3 percent increase in 2025, with demand rotating away from China toward Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America, according to a market outlook published on 4 January 2026 by NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) in collaboration with the Consumer Technology Association (CTA). The sector is forecast to close 2025 at approximately $1.3 trillion, up 3 percent from 2024, while total sales value in 2026 is projected at minus 0.4 percent year on year.

NielsenIQ, a consumer intelligence company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, said the figures represent a reset rather than a broad contraction. The projections are company estimates based on long-term and current trend data and were released ahead of CES 2026, the technology trade show organised by the CTA and scheduled for 6 to 9 January in Las Vegas.

Lead

NielsenIQ and the Consumer Technology Association said on 4 January that global consumer technology and durable goods sales are set to hold broadly steady in 2026 at an estimated -0.4 percent year on year, after finishing 2025 at roughly $1.3 trillion, up 3 percent on 2024. The outlook identifies regional divergence, rather than global momentum, as the defining feature of the coming year: Eastern Europe (+5 percent), Western Europe (+3 percent) and the Middle East and Africa (+3 percent) are projected to lead growth, followed by Latin America (+2 percent), while North America holds steady and Asia-Pacific declines by 3 percent, driven by a 5 percent fall in China.

Background

NielsenIQ describes itself as a consumer intelligence company with operations in more than 90 countries, covering approximately 85 percent of the world's population and more than $7.2 trillion in global consumer spending. The company publishes recurring estimates for the technology and durables category, which spans smartphones, personal computers, televisions, telecom equipment, major and small domestic appliances, and IT and office products.

The CTA is a North American technology trade association whose members range from start-ups to large multinational brands, and it owns and produces the CES exhibition. The 2026 outlook is the latest joint estimate from the two organisations and follows a 2025 in which the category grew, but at a pace shaped by subsidy-driven demand in China and by shifting tariff conditions in the United States.

The methodology note accompanying the release states that the 2026 estimate assumes China continues some level of financial support for its domestic market during the year, but not to the extent seen in 2025. That assumption is central to the projected Asia-Pacific decline, because it implies a smaller subsidy impulse against a higher 2025 comparison base.

Main Reporting

Regional performance

The outlook places the strongest growth in Eastern Europe at +5 percent, with Western Europe and the Middle East and Africa each at +3 percent and Latin America at +2 percent. North America is expected to hold steady, while Asia-Pacific is projected to decline by 3 percent, a figure the report attributes largely to China at -5 percent.

Category performance

At the product level, small domestic appliances are expected to grow, and IT and office equipment to record modest gains. Major domestic appliances are seen as stable. Telecom and consumer electronics are projected to decline slightly, even as replacement cycles for personal computers and smartphones continue to generate underlying demand.

Product dynamics

NielsenIQ identifies premiumisation as a partial offset to softer volumes. Products cited as supporting higher price points include artificial intelligence-enabled personal computers, Mini LED and OLED televisions, built-in kitchen appliances and smart home appliances. Televisions are expected to receive an additional demand boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while open-ear headsets are described as sustaining momentum. The report states that artificial intelligence features offer premiumisation potential where use cases are clearly demonstrated to buyers.

Company commentary

"In 2025, global Consumer Tech & Durable goods purchases grew by a solid 3%. Growth is expected to slow in 2026, but most regions should remain stable or see modest gains. The exception is China, where elevated baselines from recent trade-in policies will weigh on performance."

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— Julian Baldwin, President of Tech & Durables at NIQ

"Looking ahead, the next phase of growth will rely less on broad market recovery and more on how effectively brands tailor innovation, pricing, and features to meet local consumer expectations."

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— Julian Baldwin, NIQ

"Despite easing inflation and resilient demand in many regions, risks from tariffs and supply chain disruptions persist."

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— Steve Koenig, Vice President of Research, Consumer Technology Association

"Consumers remain value-driven but are prepared to spend where they see compelling product features. Built-in Artificial Intelligence continues to present strong opportunity as a product differentiator, but adoption will depend on clear use cases that illustrate direct benefits and ROI."

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— Steve Koenig, CTA

Strategic considerations

The outlook advises brands and retailers to align pricing, innovation and retail experience with region- and category-specific demand. It also flags three policy and trade variables to monitor: evolving United States tariffs, China's trade-in programmes, and expanding competition from Chinese brands entering new markets. Affordability and accessibility are identified as factors influencing the pace of artificial intelligence adoption globally.

NielsenIQ executives, including Julie Kenar, Senior Vice President for the automotive business, and Sherry Frey, Vice President for total wellness, are scheduled to present related insights at CES 2026 in Las Vegas from 6 to 9 January.

International Context

The forecast arrives at a point when global goods trade, industrial policy and technology standards are increasingly intertwined. Consumer electronics and appliances sit at the intersection of several cross-border trends: tariff regimes that affect component and finished-goods costs, supply chain diversification across Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe, and subsidy programmes that shift demand timing within individual markets.

The projected rotation toward Europe, the Middle East and Africa carries implications beyond retail. Distribution networks, logistics corridors, after-sales infrastructure and retail financing in those regions would need to absorb additional volume if the estimates prove accurate. Conversely, a decline in China would affect manufacturing utilisation, component ordering patterns and the pricing strategies of brands that treat the market as a volume anchor.

Artificial intelligence is also emerging as a cross-border policy issue as well as a product feature. Regulators in the European Union, the United States and Asia are developing differing approaches to AI transparency, safety and data governance, while manufacturers market AI-enabled devices on the basis of performance and energy efficiency. How those rules converge or diverge could influence product design cycles and launch timing in multiple regions simultaneously.

The 2026 World Cup, hosted across Canada, Mexico and the United States, adds a scheduled demand event that typically lifts television and audio sales in host regions and in markets with strong viewership. Such events tend to shift the timing of purchases rather than alter long-term replacement cycles.

Verified Analysis

The figures cited above are company projections published by NielsenIQ and the CTA. They are attributed to the issuing organisations and have not been independently audited or verified by Globe News Agency. The release does not publish full methodological detail, sampling frames or confidence intervals, so the precision of individual regional percentages should be treated as indicative rather than definitive.

What can be stated with reasonable confidence is the direction of travel described by the two organisations: a category that grew in 2025 is expected to flatten in 2026, with performance determined more by regional and product mix than by overall market expansion. That assessment is consistent with the broader pattern in consumer durables, where replacement demand in mature markets is relatively stable and growth depends on either new household formation, subsidy support or premiumisation.

The principal risks identified in the outlook are tariff policy, supply chain disruption and the durability of consumer spending in an environment of easing but persistent inflation. Two further uncertainties are implicit in the data. First, the China projection depends on an assumption about the scale of future government support that has not been confirmed by policymakers. Second, the premiumisation thesis depends on consumers accepting higher prices for artificial intelligence features whose practical value is still being established in the market.

From a business perspective, the outlook implies continued pressure on volume-led strategies and greater emphasis on mix, pricing discipline and regional execution. For policymakers, the projected regional shift is relevant to trade facilitation, customs capacity, energy efficiency standards for appliances and digital infrastructure investment. For investors, the relevant signal is likely to be divergence between categories and geographies rather than a single sector-wide trend.

Future Developments

Over the next two to five years, several factors are likely to shape how closely actual outcomes track the 2026 projections.

Policy implementation. The scale and duration of China's consumer trade-in support will be a primary variable for Asia-Pacific volumes. Tariff decisions in the United States and any retaliatory measures would affect pricing and sourcing decisions across the category.

Business response. Manufacturers are expected to continue shifting product development toward energy efficiency, durability and clearly demonstrated software features, while adjusting regional portfolios and channel strategies. Retailers in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa may see increased investment in logistics and after-sales capacity if growth estimates hold.

Technology adoption. AI-enabled personal computers and appliances are likely to move from premium tiers toward mid-market price bands, a transition that typically depends on falling component costs and demonstrable productivity or energy savings.

Market developments. Replacement cycles for smartphones and personal computers, combined with scheduled events such as the 2026 World Cup, are expected to support periodic demand peaks. Whether those peaks translate into durable category growth will depend on broader household spending conditions.

Regulatory evolution. Digital governance rules, product safety requirements and energy labelling regimes in major markets will continue to influence design and compliance costs, with particular relevance for cross-border manufacturers.

Global competitiveness. The expansion of Chinese brands into new markets is likely to intensify price competition in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, affecting the margin structure of established vendors.

Conclusion

The 2026 consumer technology and durable goods outlook published by NielsenIQ and the Consumer Technology Association describes a market in transition rather than decline. Aggregate sales value is expected to be broadly flat, with growth concentrated in Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America, and a measurable contraction in China following the elevated baseline created by recent trade-in programmes.

For brands, retailers and investors, the practical implication is that regional and category-level execution will matter more than broad market recovery. For policymakers and trade officials, the forecast highlights how subsidy design, tariff policy and supply chain configuration can shift demand between markets within a single year. The coming CES 2026 exhibition in Las Vegas is expected to provide the next substantive update on product-level strategies underpinning these projections.

Key Takeaways

• NielsenIQ and the Consumer Technology Association project global consumer technology and durable goods sales at minus 0.4 percent year on year in 2026, after 3 percent growth in 2025 to approximately $1.3 trillion.
• Growth is expected to be led by Eastern Europe (+5 percent), Western Europe (+3 percent), the Middle East and Africa (+3 percent) and Latin America (+2 percent). North America is expected to hold steady; Asia-Pacific is projected at -3 percent, with China at -5 percent.
• Small domestic appliances and IT and office equipment are expected to grow or post modest gains; telecom and consumer electronics are projected to decline slightly.
• Premiumisation, including AI-enabled PCs, Mini LED and OLED televisions, built-in and smart home appliances, and open-ear headsets, is identified as a partial offset to softer volumes, with the 2026 World Cup supporting television demand.
• Named risks include United States tariff policy, supply chain disruption, the fading effect of China's trade-in subsidies and intensifying competition from Chinese brands in new markets.
• All figures are company projections that have not been independently verified; the release does not disclose full methodology or confidence intervals.

SEO Keywords

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Sources

• NielsenIQ / Business Wire, "Consumer Tech Growth to Reset in 2026 as Demand Shifts to Europe and MEA," 4 January 2026 — https://via.tt.se/pressmeddelande/4201935/consumer-tech-growth-to-reset-in-2026-as-demand-shifts-to-europe-and-mea?publisherId=259167&lang=en
• Business Wire original distribution — https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260104140033/en/
• NIQ, 2026 Consumer Tech & Durable Goods market growth estimate — https://nielseniq.com/global/en/insights/analysis/2026/consumer-tech-market-growth-estimate-2026/
• NIQ corporate information — https://www.niq.com
• Consumer Technology Association — https://www.cta.tech